6/10/2012
Due to the record number of foreclosures that have occurred as a result
If you've been following developments in the US housing market at all over the last few months you may have seen or heard the term "shadow inventory" being thrown around. So what is it anyway?
Shadow inventory refers to properties that have either been foreclosed upon and which have not yet been resold, or properties that owners are intending to put up for sale as soon as housing market prices stabilize and recover/improve. It can result in a great deal of uncertainty regarding what the best time to sell one's home may be, as well as regarding the period over which a housing market can expect to experience comprehensive signs of recovery.
Due to the record number of foreclosures that have occurred as a result of the sub-prime mortgage collapse of 2007-2008 and the general free-fall of the housing market, lenders found themselves saddled with a large amount of real estate.
Also, at a time when pessimism regarding housing market conditions is at a very high level, full disclosure of shadow inventory figures could easily result in further panic, prompting even more American homeowners to part with their properties rather than deal with the prospect of coping with mortgage payments that are far in excess of what their homes are actually worth. If banks can be more straight forward in terms of the full scope of the situation, the resulting ripple-effect would be significant on the housing market
- Home prices would continue to fall.
- More people would choose to short-sell their homes, rather than remain bound to mortgage payments that are not resulting in the creation of any real wealth.
- An increasing amount of short-sales would cause the shadow inventory to become even more inflated.
- This would mean that banks would be in possession of even more properties that they have no desire to own.
- If the previous point is valid, banks would need to reduce the prices of these homes in order to part with them; this is a prospect which they are unsurprisingly very resistant to.
Why go through all that, most banks figure? It's far easier to simply cover up figures relating to how many homes are REO (Real Estate Owned) - the term used to describe homes that were sold in foreclosure proceedings.
Estimate of Shadow Inventory
Official estimates put the amount of homes included in the current shadow inventory figure at around 875,000. This is almost double the amount compared to the beginning of the housing market crisis in 2007. Beyond this figure, banks are currently in the process of foreclosing on a further one million homes (as recently reported by the New York Times), with several more million in the works in the next few years. These figures are truly staggering and alarming.
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